Clinton leads in Oregon by 11 points in latest FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV poll
By FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between May 6 and May 9. The sample size was 902 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.3% for Clinton and 42.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Oregon. This value is 5.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.
