In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will obtain 53.1% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.9% for Trump.
Looking at the components
The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 56.0% of the vote.
Trump lost ten percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has shown a shift this large.
With 53.8% in aggregated polls the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably high in comparison to past election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 59.4% for Democratic candidate.