Jerome model in Arkansas: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas sees Trump at 58.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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