Jerome model: Trump in Wisconsin trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Wisconsin econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. This value is 2.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.0% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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