The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 49.5% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 50.5%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve 50.5% of the vote.
Virginia is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have often gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 53.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Virginia. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 1.5 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.5 percentage points higher.