The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 49.0% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will win 51.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.0% of the vote.
In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.
The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 2.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.0 percentage points higher.