The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Vermont has Clinton at 60.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in Vermont, which is 6.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.2 percentage points higher.