DeSart model: Clinton in Utah trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 21.8% for Clinton and 78.2% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 78.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 71.4%. This value is 6.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 63.5% of the two-party vote in Utah, which is 14.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 31.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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