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DeSart model in Texas: Trump with very clear lead


The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton and 60.9% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 57.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Texas. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.2% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 4.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 13.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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