Jerome model: Clinton in Tennessee trails by a small margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Tennessee.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Tennessee sees Trump at 57.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.1% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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