The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, whereas Trump will win 52.2%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 57.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Tennessee. This value is 5.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.4% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.2 percentage points higher.