Jerome model: Clinton in South Dakota trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 57.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 59.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Dakota. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in South Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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