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DeSart model: Clinton in South Carolina trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 55.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Carolina. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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