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Rothschild model in Nevada: Trump with very clear lead


The Rothschild model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 39.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 61.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Nevada sees Trump at 48.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 12.3 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 12.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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