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Rothschild model: Clinton in Missouri trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 99.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Missouri sees Trump at 55.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 44.0 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Missouri, which is 45.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 52.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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