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Rothschild model: Clinton in Georgia trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, whereas Trump will win 99.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 99.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 54.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 44.5 percentage points worse.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 46.5 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 52.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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