The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 60.0% of the two-party vote share in Wisconsin, while Trump will end up with 40.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 40.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 53.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.9 percentage points lower.
The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin, which is 6.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 7.0 percentage points higher.