Rothschild model in Washington: Clinton with very clear lead

The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 95.0% for Clinton and 5.0% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Washington econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 40.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 39.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 42.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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