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Ohio: Rothschild model shows Trump in the lead


The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will garner 32.0% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 68.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Ohio sees Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 18.2 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 19.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.0% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 21.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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