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Rothschild model: Trump with very clear lead in North Carolina


The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 10.0% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 90.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with 90.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Carolina sees Trump at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 36.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 39.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.5% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 43.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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