The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 10.0% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 90.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with 90.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in North Carolina sees Trump at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 36.8 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 39.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.5% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 43.0 percentage points higher.