Rothschild model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

The Rothschild model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 84.0% for Clinton and 16.0% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 16.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Mexico econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.6%. This value is 31.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Mexico, which is 30.1 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 31.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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