New Jersey: Rothschild model shows Clinton in the lead

The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 99.0% for Clinton and 1.0% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 1.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey sees Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points worse.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 41.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.5% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 46.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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