Rothschild model: Trump with very clear lead in Montana

The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Montana, while Trump will end up with 99.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 99.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Montana has Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 41.9 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 52.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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