The Rothschild model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 76.0% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, whereas Trump will end up with 24.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 24.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Minnesota has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 21.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota, which is 21.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 23.0 percentage points higher.