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Rothschild model: Trump in Maine trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will receive 97.0% of the two-party vote share in Maine, whereas Trump will end up with 3.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 55.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Maine. This value is 41.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.6% of the two-party vote in Maine, which is 41.4 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 44.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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