The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will receive 97.0% of the two-party vote share in Maine, whereas Trump will end up with 3.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 55.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Maine. This value is 41.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.6% of the two-party vote in Maine, which is 41.4 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 44.0 percentage points higher.