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Rothschild model: Clinton with clear lead in Iowa


The Rothschild model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will garner 57.0% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 43.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Iowa is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 4.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.5% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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