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Rothschild model: Trump in Illinois trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 99.0% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will win 1.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 1.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 54.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 45.0 percentage points worse.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 41.4 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 46.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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