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Florida: Rothschild model shows Trump in the lead

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The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 24.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 76.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Florida sees Trump at 50.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 25.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 26.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.4% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 29.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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