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Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Delaware


The Rothschild model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 99.0% of the two-party vote share in Delaware, while Trump will win 1.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 1.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Delaware econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 43.6 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 33.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 65.1% in Delaware. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 46.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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