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Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Connecticut


The Rothschild model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 98.0% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, while Trump will end up with 2.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 2.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 42.9 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 43.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.5% in Connecticut. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 45.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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