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Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Colorado

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The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 68.0% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will win 32.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Colorado has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Colorado econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 16.0 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 13.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 15.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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