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Rothschild model: Trump with very clear lead in Arizona


The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will win 99.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 99.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Arizona econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 45.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 52.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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