Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Oregon

The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 95.0% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, while Trump will win 5.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Oregon econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.1%. This value is 40.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 42.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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