Rothschild model in Pennsylvania: Trump with small lead

The Rothschild model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.0% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania has Trump at 48.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 46.7% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 5.3 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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