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DeSart model: Trump in Rhode Island trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 62.1% for Clinton and 37.9% for Trump in Rhode Island. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 37.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Rhode Island econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.9%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.0% in Rhode Island. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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