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Jerome model: Trump in Pennsylvania trails by a moderate margin


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 46.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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