The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win only 46.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.