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Jerome model in Oregon: Clinton with comfortable lead


The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will garner 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oregon sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote for Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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