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DeSart model in Oklahoma: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 30.0% for Clinton and 70.0% for Trump in Oklahoma. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma sees Trump at 63.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.5% in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 23.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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