The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to win 50.9% of the vote.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Ohio sees Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.0% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.9 percentage points higher.