The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Ohio has Clinton at 50.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 0.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points lower.