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North Carolina: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.4% for Clinton and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Carolina econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 50.5% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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