DeSart model: Trump in New Mexico trails by a small margin

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 47.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Mexico econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.6%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Mexico, which is 0.9 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. The results are consistent with PollyVote's national prediction for Clinton.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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