Jerome model: Trump in New Jersey trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.7% for Clinton and 42.3% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 42.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey sees Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.5% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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