Florida: Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Jerome model

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.0%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect only 49.0% of the vote.

In Florida, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Florida. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 0.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.0 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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