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Rothschild model in New Hampshire: Clinton with very clear lead


The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 71.0% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will end up with 29.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of New Hampshire econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 18.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 17.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.6% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 18.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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