Wisconsin: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest DeSart model

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 51.2% of the two-party vote share in Wisconsin, whereas Trump will win 48.9%. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 48.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they may include large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Wisconsin econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. This value is 2.0 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.0% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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