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Latest DeSart model in Colorado: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 50.4% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will win 49.7%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Colorado is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Colorado econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.1%. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.6 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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