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Nevada: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Jerome model

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.5%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Nevada has Clinton at 51.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.0% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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