Jerome model in Mississippi: Trump with comfortable lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.8% for Trump in Mississippi. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Mississippi sees Trump at 56.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.7% in Mississippi. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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