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Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Michigan


The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 87.0% for Clinton and 13.0% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 13.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. This value is 33.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 32.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.4% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 34.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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